The global solar photovoltaic (PV) market is poised to rise from the ashes of its 2011 crisis to grow to $155 billion in 2018, as market forces engineer a turnaround to a healthy 10.5 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
In the most likely scenario, the PV market will grow at a modest clip to 35 GW in 2013 before rapidly ramping up to 61.7 GW in 2018, according to Lux Research.
Lead author of the report Ed Cahill said this nightmare for manufacturers is turning into a long-term boon for the industry.
"Record low prices pushed gross margins to near zero or below, but they've made solar installations competitive in more markets," Cahill explains in his report titled, "Market Size Update 2013: Return to Equilibrium."
"Supply and demand will come back into balance in 2015, easing price pressure, returning manufacturers to profitability and restoring the industry to equilibrium."
Lux Research analysts used a detailed levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis in 156 separate geographies, accounting for 82 per cent of the world's population, to determine the viability and competitiveness of solar in each market.
It found that the United States, China, Japan, and India will take over where Germany and Italy left off.
"With an 18 per cent CAGR to 10.8 GW of installations in 2018, the United States will emerge as the world's second-largest market. But China will leapfrog it, growing over 15 per cent annually to 12.4 GW in 2018," Cahill said.
"Utility-scale installations will grow the fastest; commercial the largest. Utility-scale solar, the smallest segment in 2012 at 8.6 GW, will grow the fastest to 19.9 GW in 2018 as developing markets turn to PV.
"Globally, commercial applications reign supreme as markets like the US and Japan move to large rooftop installations.
"Opportunities abound for cheap IP. Struggling start-ups present opportunities to acquire intellectual property at record low prices."
Lux Research is hosting a complimentary webinar on the coming resurgence of the solar industry on June 25, 2013.
