Refrigerants Australia executive director, Greg Picker, provides an update on the year ahead and warns industry that 2016 will be another busy year. But he is also quick to point out that industry is accustomed to change and is good at staying focused and getting the job done. Here is what he had to say.
2016 is turning into another interesting year for those of us interested in refrigerants. The HFC phase down is yet to be finalised internationally and domestically but they are both still having an impact.
Gas and equipment manufacturers are well into the process of developing the next best thing in refrigerants in order to meet the – safety, performance, efficiency and environmental – needs of their customers.
The number and types of new refrigerants - mainly HFOs and HFC/HFO blends - are increasing quickly. According to the Montreal Protocol’s technical body, TEAP, as of April this year there was somewhere around 80 new refrigerants. Manufacturers are trying to find solutions that deliver high performance, good safety and a low GWP threshold.
Right now there are lots of options being discussed but details on many of the new products are uncertain or not yet verified.
This lack of information should not, however, overly worry the service industry. You will not be faced with 80 new refrigerants. Instead the market will do what it did with the CFC phase-out and weed through the options.
Only 15 or so new refrigerants will ever arrive in Australia and - in a reasonably short period - there will be a further winnowing process and we will be down to an even smaller number of refrigerants in general use.
The only real risk to this outlook is if either the international community or Australian Government fails to agree on a phase down. If either of these outcomes were to come to fruition that would send a serious shock through the industry.
Part of what a phase down does is provide industry with long term certainty and the capacity to make investments in the future with confidence that the prospective rules are clear and understood. Decisions being made today are on the basis that a phase down will be agreed both domestically and internationally.
This is a reasonable assumption. The Department of the Environment has worked diligently on a review of the Ozone Protection and Synthetic Greenhouse Gas Management Act. It is done and Government should be able to announce its position soon.
It would be virtually inconceivable that an HFC phase down would not be part of legislative amendment agreed by the Government, or by the Opposition which has said it is interested in the Act review, should they win the election.
Internationally, the pressure to approve an HFC phase down is ramping up to a white-hot temperature. If we are ever to get it done, the final year of the Obama administration, which sees an agreement in the Montreal Protocol as part of its legacy and is putting its diplomatic weight behind an agreement, seems to be the best bet.
There are two opportunities left – meetings in July and October – to reach final agreement. Fingers crossed that the remaining disputes can be resolved swiftly.
Other changes will continue to impact the domestic market. We will likely see continued introduction of natural refrigerants in OEM equipment, as well as development of new standards and codes to manage both these refrigerants, as well as issues around flammability of some new refrigerants.
Despite occasional hoopla, these changes are the sorts of developments that the industry has managed year in and year out.
And that is the real message overall. Yes, there is further change coming for the industry: new refrigerants, increased use of natural refrigerants, new codes, standards and guidelines, further development of legislation both nationally and internationally. But do you know what?
We have managed this well before, and as an industry we will work through the change methodically and deal with them again. So 2016 seems to follow the pattern of previous years in relation to refrigerants – lots of changes coming as per usual: let’s get on with it.