Australia will need to triple the National Electricity Market’s (NEM) power capacity by 2030 to be on track for net zero by 2050.
This is a key finding of the Net Zero Australia project which will release final modelling results of pathways to net zero later today.
Net Zero Australia is a partnership of The University of Melbourne, The University of Queensland, Princeton University’s Andlinger Center for Energy and Environment, and Nous Group.
Chair of the Net Zero Australia steering committee, Professor Robin Batterham, said said the results are unprecedented in their detail, rigour and transparency.
“We are not pushing a preferred pathway, rather we are illustrating a range of potential pathways,” he said.
“Our assumptions and detailed results are all public so they can be used by governments, businesses, and communities. They include projections for potential energy sources, mapping of possible land use change, and analysis of abatement from farming and other land uses.”
Director of the Melbourne Energy Institute at the University of Melbourne, Professor Michael Brear, said the modelling shows that Australia will need all viable options to transform its energy system at an unprecedented pace and scale.
“We will need an all technology, hands on deck approach. That includes a large increase in permanent carbon storage, deep underground and in vegetation, and a doubling of gas-fired power capacity to support renewables and energy storage,” he said.
The modelling found no role for nuclear energy unless costs fell around 30 per cent.
Associate Professor in Chemical Engineering at The University of Queensland, Professor Simon Smart, said hydrogen made from solar, wind and desalinated water can replace Australia’s fossil fuel exports.
“Exporting green metals, particularly iron and steel made in Australia using clean hydrogen, has much lower abatement and infrastructure costs than for exporting clean hydrogen,” he said.
“Northern Australia (WA, Queensland, and NT) is particularly prospective for exports, but inland NSW and SA and offshore Victoria and Tasmania can also play major roles.
“Our modelling also suggests that new gas fields may be needed to fulfill export demand for clean hydrogen, particularly if the growth in renewable construction rates hits limits.”
Independent steering committee member, Katherin Domansky said that net zero would bring major changes in employment and land use which will create large opportunities and challenges.
“Renewable energy has great advantages in providing a sustainable source of energy to Australia and the world,” Domansky said.
“Decarbonisation will provide up to 700,000 direct jobs, mainly in regional and rural Australia.
“However, renewables need much more land area than fossil fuels to produce a given amount of energy. Our renewable resources overlap the lands of First Nations and farming communities, and land with biodiversity value.
“Careful management will be needed to minimise adverse impacts, share benefits with affected communities and achieve a net gain in biodiversity.”
Senior Research Scientist at Princeton University’s Andlinger Center on Energy and Environment, Dr Chris Greig, said that around $7-9 trillion of capital will need to be committed to domestic and export energy and industrial infrastructure by 2060, which is up to six times the business-as-usual amount.
“Additional investment will be needed by households and businesses, to increase the efficiency of their heaters and vehicles, including by converting to heat pumps and EVs,” Greig said.
He said the annualized costs of that investment in energy production, transport and use has been estimated at 8-9% of GDP to 2050, which is similar to today’s level.
Nous Group principal, Richard Bolt, said that the project will now examine how to mobilise the transition to net zero.
“Mobilisation will require strong and coordinated action from governments, businesses, and the public. Our next report, due in July, aims to inform the actions of all parties,” Bolt said.
“It will ask how to transform our energy system and exports, and invest in people, land and nature. We have identified key decisions to be made and will provide some answers. As with the modelling, we will base our findings on evidence not preferences,” he said.
NB: Net Zero Australia is sponsored by Worley, Dow, Future Fuels Cooperative Research Centre, Future Energy Exports (FEnEx) Cooperative Research Centre, APA Group and Minderoo Foundation.
The Advisory Group includes senior representatives of the Australian Conservation Foundation, Climate Council, Energy Consumers Australia, Ethics Centre, National Farmers Federation, and St Vincent de Paul. It also has independent members and nominees from each project sponsor.