CSIRO research leader Dr Stephen White took the courageous step of recreating the HVAC&R industry in the year 2025 boldly identifying the technologies likely to dominate a decade from now.
In his future world scenario, the government mandates zero emission buildings.
This is the new industry standard and in this environment White says there is plenty of interest in free cooling technology, there are more heat recovery heat exchangers and of course, indirect evaporative cooling just to name a few.
In 2025 all products are much more energy efficient and the focus is on bringing air closer to the person.
“It’s about air conditioning the space you occupy not the entire building,” he says.
“This happens through the use of occupancy sensors that switch off the air in places that are not occupied plus smart controls have their own artificial intelligience,” he says.
Even in the modern 2020s, White says the industry is still relying on the usual suspects like variable speed drives, high efficiency fans and pumps, generous duct sizing and fans continue to power ahead as “we get rid of electric heat.”
“Cooling demand will match solar availability. Solar Photovoltaic (PV) systems are commonplace, its cheap and the amount of solar radiation available in the summer months matches the overall cooling load of the building,” he says.
In a world where there are more renewable energy options, a gas-fired trigeneration system isn’t so attractive.
“In 2025 trigeneration is seen as a transition solution unless its coupled with something like solar air conditioning,” White says.
“At this time there is a war on for roof space. Remember PV is cost effective and people are asking if they should use their roof for solar thermal hot water or solar thermal air conditioning. Or should that roof space be used for my PVs?
“Businesses are putting out product now where the roof is actually a solar product so when you put on your cladding your also putting your solar on.
“This is the age of building integrated construction products that are solarised.”
There are no carbon trading schemes a decade from now but there is a renewable trading scheme.
“Organisations are trading in renewable energy certificates as a source of revenue,” he says.
There is also a dedicated university degree for the zero energy building industry.
“The tools of the trade for the HVAC industry will require more training, we are selling new technology bundles. For example we are selling solar, energy efficiency and other new technologies.
As a result we have a degree that reflects the birth of a new industry – the HVACR&S industry,” he says. That’s right the S stands for solar.