Cooling is set to account for 13 per cent of global electricity demand by 2035 as rising incomes, expanding floor space and higher temperatures drive rapid growth in air-conditioning.
The analysis from DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook program highlights the growing challenge of expanding access to cooling while simultaneously decarbonising the electricity system.
DNV's analysis, Burning to cool : COP31 has a cooling challenge, estimates electricity demand for cooling will increase by more than 60 per cent over the next decade.
By 2035, cooling demand will be twice the electricity demand associated with either electric vehicle charging or artificial intelligence data centres.
The findings come as cooling features in discussions around COP31, including the Third Annual Cooling Ministerial on November 16 to be held in Türkiye next week.
The Global Cooling Pledge, launched at COP28 in 2023, calls for cooling-related emissions to fall by at least 68 per cent from 2022 levels by 2050 while expanding access to sustainable cooling.
DNV's research forecasts that CO₂ emissions from electricity used for space cooling will fall by only 40 per cent from 2022 levels towards mid-century.
While the figures have different emissions boundaries – the Global Cooling Pledge also includes HFCs – DNV's forecast highlights the scale of the challenge as rapidly rising cooling demand offsets some of the benefits of grid decarbonisation.
DNV forecasts that global cooling electricity demand, currently around 2,800 TWh, will increase by 80 per cent by 2040, compared with growth of 55 per cent over the previous 15 years.
"Growth is heavily concentrated in emerging economies," the report warns.
"Cooling demand is forecast to triple in the Indian Subcontinent and quadruple in South East Asia over the next 15 years.
"North American demand, by contrast, increases by just over 5 per cent, with data centre cooling accounting for much of the additional load."
DNV's analysis finds rising incomes to be the largest driver of additional cooling-energy demand between 2025 and 2040, while improvements in cooling equipment and controls offset only a small proportion of the increase.
The Global Cooling Pledge includes an ambition to increase the global average efficiency of new air conditioners by 50 per cent by 2030 compared with a 2022 installed baseline.
DNV's analysis indicates that translating such ambitions into equipment standards and improving access to efficient cooling will be important, particularly in countries experiencing the fastest demand growth
DNV is an independent assurance and risk management provider, operating in more than 100 countries.