Australian businesses rushing to take advantage of the Federal Government's new commercial solar rebate are being warned to watch out for cowboys taking advantage of the upcoming solar gold rush.
The warning follows the expansion of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme on 1 October 2026, extending eligibility to commercial solar installations of up to 1 MW and potentially reducing upfront costs by around 20 per cent.
While the changes represent an enormous opportunity for Australian businesses to reduce electricity costs, industry experts fear the incentive could also trigger a repeat of the problems experienced during Australia's household solar and battery boom, which was accompanied by installation complaints and a high rate of business failures.
Nicholas Stavroulakis of Australian commercial energy company Agile Energy warned that businesses considering solar installations worth hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars must investigate the financial stability, experience and long-term obligations of their installer before signing a contract.
"We have undertaken research to understand the health of the sector and the results are deeply concerning. Solar companies are failing and collapsing at record levels. Many are teetering on the edge of closure," Stavroulakis said.
"While the rebate is excellent policy, it is also creating perfect conditions for another wave of solar industry failures because whenever government incentives attract large amounts of money, new operators rush into the market.
"Some are excellent businesses with the expertise, financial backing and experience to deliver these projects. Others have been selling household batteries and small residential systems and are suddenly quoting on half-million-dollar commercial installations."
According to Agile Energy research, daily household battery installations rose from approximately 200 to more than 1,500 following the introduction of the battery rebate in July 2025.
The expansion was accompanied by a sharp rise in consumer complaints. For example, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) reported a 107 per cent increase in complaints.
Clean Energy Regulator inspection results cited in Stavroulakis's analysis found that 62 per cent of 3,425 rebated battery installations inspected to 30 June 2026 were classified as substandard, with problems attributed to installation practices.
"These figures should be setting off alarm bells because they show what can happen when an industry grows faster than the capability and quality controls of some of the businesses entering it," Stavroulakis said.
"We are now extending substantial financial incentives into commercial projects where the stakes can be considerably higher.
"People need to understand that a commercial solar installation is effectively a construction project, and the contractor needs the financial capacity to deliver it," he said.
"A 25-year warranty looks impressive on paper, but it means very little if the company standing behind it disappears after three years."
One of the biggest risks, according to Stavroulakis, is large upfront deposits that expose customers to substantial losses before equipment has been delivered or work completed.
"Imagine signing a $500,000 commercial solar contract and being asked to pay 50 per cent upfront. That's $250,000 handed over before the system is operating," Stavroulakis said.
"Businesses should be negotiating payments linked to genuine project milestones, such as equipment delivery, installation and commissioning, and considering appropriate contractual protections for larger projects. Stavroulakis said a 500kW commercial solar installation is not simply a residential system with more panels.
"Before signing, ask the contractor to show you at least three comparable commercial projects they have completed, preferably systems above 100 kW and speak directly to those customers," he said.
"If the company cannot demonstrate that it has successfully delivered projects of a similar size and complexity, you need to ask why your business should become its experiment."