Nations must collectively commit to cutting 42 per cent off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which are due early 2025.
Without these cuts the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will fail, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report entitled Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air please.
The report warns if nations do not commit to drastic cuts the world is on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century.
Updated NDCs must be submitted early next year ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Brazil.
Right now the world is preparing for COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan from 11 to 22 November, 2024.
UN secretary-general, António Guterres, said the world is out of time.
“Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time,” he said.,
The report also looks at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28 per cent by 2030 and 37 per cent from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs.
Executive director of UNEP, Inger Andersen, said climate crunch time is here.
“We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead,” Andersen said.
The consequences of delayed action are also highlighted by the report. The cuts required are relative to 2019 levels, but greenhouse gas emissions have since grown to a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023.
While this makes a marginal difference to the overall cuts required from 2019-2030, the delay in action means that 7.5 per cent must be shaved off emissions every year until 2035 for 1.5°C, and 4 per cent for 2°C.
The size of the annual cuts required will increase with every year’s delay.
The G20 members, responsible for the bulk of total emissions, must do the heavy lifting. However, this group is still off track to meet even current NDCs