The only way to curb greenhouse gases and effectively mitigate the impact of climate change is to implement tougher cuts to emissions, according to the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The UN’s scientific panel has released two reports in the last two months recommending immediate action on climate change.
Rich nations, led by the United States, will need to halve emissions from 2010 levels
by 2030 to keep warming below two degrees Celsius.
Meanwhile, China and India will have to limit emissions to 2010 levels by 2030, which is an incredibly tough benchmark to set with a rising middle class demanding more heating and cooling solutions.
The IPCC report says former Soviet bloc nations will have to cut emissions from 2010 by
a third by 2030. The report will be used as a guide for policymakers when it is time to negotiate a climate change deal at the Paris summit in late 2015.
Demand for energy and its impact on emissions is covered extensively in the report. It says climate change will increase the demand for energy in most regions of the world.
At the same time, increasing temperature will decrease the thermal efficiency of fossil, nuclear, biomass, and solar power generation technologies.
The three main types of technologies for harnessing energy from insolation include thermal heating (by flat plate, evacuated tube and unglazed collectors), photovoltaic (PV) cells (crystalline silicon and thin film technologies) and concentrated solar power or CSP (power tower and power trough producing heat to drive a steam turbine for generating electricity).
“All types of solar energy are sensitive to changes in climatic attributes that directly or indirectly influence the amount of insolation reaching them. If cloudiness increases under climate change, the intensity of solar radiation and hence the output of heat or electricity would be reduced,” the IPCC Working Group II (WG II) report says.
“Efficiency losses in cloudy conditions are less for technologies that can operate with diffuse light (evacuated tube collectors for TH, PV collectors with rough surface). Since diffuse light cannot be concentrated, CSP output would cease under cloudy conditions but the easy and relatively inexpensive possibility to store heat reduces this vulnerability if sufficient volume of heat storage is installed.”
Another issue raised in the report is the impact of climate change on building and construction. This chapter also cover humidity and air flow issues.
The report says interior building systems that allow for proper airflow in a facility face significant problems. For example, the increases in temperature and precipitation will lead to increased humidity as well as indoor temperatures.
This requires increased airflow in facilities such as hospitals, schools, and office buildings. That is, upgrades to air conditioning and fan units and perhaps further renovations that may be significant in scope and cost.
Also, a change in the pattern of natural disasters will imply a change in the demand for rebuilding and repair.
Air to air heat exchangers, heat recovery ventilators, dehumidifiers and other technologies may be useful in adapting indoor air quality, the report says.
IPCC WG II co-chair Vincente Barros says investment in better preparation will pay dividends now and in the future.
“We live in an era of man-made climate change. In many cases, we are not prepared for the climate-related risks that we already face,” he says.
“Part of the reason adaptation is so important is that the world faces a host of risks from climate change already baked into the climate system, due to past emissions and existing infrastructure.”
WG II co-chair Chris Field says climate change adaptation isn’t some exotic agenda that has never been tried but the focus is geared more toward past events than preparing for a changing future.
While governments, firms and communities are building experience with adaptation, Field says it needs to be bolder and more ambitious.
“With high levels of warming that result from continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions, risks will be challenging to manage and even serious sustained investments in adaptation will face limits,” he says.
On the upside, if you are in the business of air conditioning then the global outlook is positively bullish. In fact, according to the latest IPCC report, rising incomes and warming climates equal a significant surge in cooling-related energy use.
Energy demand for residential air conditioning in summer is projected to increase more than 30-fold from nearly 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2000 to about 4000 TWh in 2050 and more than 10,000 TWh in 2100, the report claims.
Growing middle classes in emerging markets, specifically Asia, will account for three quarters of that increase. The problem is that artificial cooling is a major source of greenhouse gases and contributes to power generation.
This problem and the release of the IPCC Report did ignite plenty of local debate about whether further cuts are required to reduce Australia’s emission targets.
Opposition environment spokesman Mark Butler has called for Australia to reduce its emissions by 15 per cent by 2020.
Australia’s current policy is a five per cent reduction in emissions by 2020 against 2000 levels but there is room to move to a target of 15 to 25 per cent.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott is sticking with a five per cent target for now but has confirmed a review will take place next year.
Report Timeline: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its first report in September 2013. The IPCC Working Group II released its report on March 31, 2014 with Working Group III releasing its report this week.
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report cycle concludes with the publication of its Synthesis Report in October 2014.
Established in 1988, the IPCC is an international body formed to assess the science related to climate change. It was set up by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Program to provide policymakers with regular assessments covering the risks of climate change and mitigation strategies.