Shortages of the refrigerant gases essential to refrigeration and air conditioning could disrupt the servicing and repair of existing systems this summer, a new independent report warns.
The Big Short: Australia’s Refrigerant Supply Challenge, prepared by Expert Group for Refrigerants Australia, identifies commercial refrigeration and larger air conditioning systems as particularly exposed, with stocks of some refrigerants potentially reaching critically low levels.
The report draws on Australian Government import records, monthly sales data from major refrigerant wholesalers and industry consultation to assess supply pressures through to 2030.
The findings show that Australia’s use of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants exceeded bulk imports in 2025, with existing stocks and recovered refrigerants making up the difference.
As import limits tighten, the ongoing need to service equipment already in operation will place further pressure on supply.
Refrigerants Australia executive director, Greg Picker, said the transition is not going well.
“Shortages will emerge progressively, first affecting individual refrigerants, suppliers and regions, well before the aggregate national inventories are exhausted,” he said.
“It will become increasingly difficult to fix refrigeration and air conditioning systems.”
The immediate concern is the limited inventory entering the 2026-27 summer period.
“Stocks of some legacy refrigerants could reach critically low levels in late 2026 or during the 2026–27 summer, well before national inventories as a whole are exhausted,” Picker said.
The Big Short provides details about which refrigerants are most at risk, and when they may become scarce.
“In future years, the severity and duration of supply constraints will depend increasingly on how quickly refrigerant usage adjusts to tightening supply and higher prices Thankfully, the future is not certain,” Picker said.
“There are three ways future refrigerant shortages can be reduced: industry can accelerate equipment transition to newer refrigerants; reduce refrigerant losses through improved installation, service and repair; and make greater use of the refrigerant already within the Australian market through recovery, recycling, re-use and reclamation. “
The Big Short can be downloaded from https://www.refrigerantsaustralia.org